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So what do you all say about the 'polling industry' forgetting the other fraud? By the way, I would not have wanted my man from earlier in the thread to go away for any amount of time had we 'wagered'.

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Oct. 28th:

To Fins and you on the data and 'expert' idea or data: Why wouldn't you use Trafalgar? Most of your experts were embarrassingly wrong last time and when they were right it was because they got Obama's elections correct, lol. If you can't see through that, however long ago it is, you purposefully being closed minded, and mainly because you are a partisan, I have noticed 95%.

Trafalgar was a disaster this year. This would have been the electoral map according to their polling:
My wife and I still have a land line -for no apparent reason. During weekdays I am usually in my home office and usually answer the phone promptly.
In 2016, prior to the election, I was contacted on our landline by a political survey organization and I answered all of their questions. After doing that I started getting contacted by other political survey organizations starting at about twice a week and increasing to once or twice daily (on weekdays) -and I answered all their questions. I also was contacted by candidate advocacy groups who disguised their pitch as a political survey with obnoxiously slanted questions. After participating in about 30 surveys, I started to sometimes decline to take the time to answer the surveys. Still, I participated several dozen more times until the 2016 election occurred and put me out of my misery.
My conclusion was that political polling organizations sell lists of phone numbers for which individuals are known to have responded to political surveys and that other polling organizations (as well as political candidates) buy these lists. Selling phone numbers is just a way that survey organizations make extra cash and buying 'HOT phone numbers' is a way that survey orgainzations reduce the time and expense of their polling operations. Thus, I think there is a cohort of 'willing respondents' that are incredibly over-represented because they comprise some fraction of the approx. 1400 to 1,700 persons surveyed on any given poll and they are common to many of the polls. Its an incredibly stupid situation.
So, 'garbage in' results in 'garbage out.'

My wife and I still have a land line -for no apparent reason. During weekdays I am usually in my home office and usually answer the phone promptly.
In 2016, prior to the election, I was contacted on our landline by a political survey organization and I answered all of their questions. After doing that I started getting contacted by other political survey organizations starting at about twice a week and increasing to once or twice daily (on weekdays) -and I answered all their questions. I also was contacted by candidate advocacy groups who disguised their pitch as a political survey with obnoxiously slanted questions. After participating in about 30 surveys, I started to sometimes decline to take the time to answer the surveys. Still, I participated several dozen more times until the 2016 election occurred and put me out of my misery.
My conclusion was that political polling organizations sell lists of phone numbers for which individuals are known to have responded to political surveys and that other polling organizations (as well as political candidates) buy these lists. Selling phone numbers is just a way that survey organizations make extra cash and buying 'HOT phone numbers' is a way that survey orgainzations reduce the time and expense of their polling operations. Thus, I think there is a cohort of 'willing respondents' that are incredibly over-represented because they comprise some fraction of the approx. 1400 to 1,700 persons surveyed on any given poll and they are common to many of the polls. Its an incredibly stupid situation.
So, 'garbage in' results in 'garbage out.'

Polls equal freedom
Since the dawn of time, people have used whatever to try to predict an outcome
Be it an election, the roll of dice or the next card
By the way, 1950 is calling you, they want your views on Taiwan back lol
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/35286-new-shutdowns-of-casinos/4/#post784365
True story. Long Long Long time ago bought some tea cups in Hong Kong. Flew to Taiwan. Was denied entry due to those made in China tea cups. Threw the tea cups away, allowed into the country. That was a long long long time ago. Times have changed, China and Taiwan are major trading partners. My Taiwan relatives have invested heavily in China. That was unheard of back in your day :-)

So when do bets get resolved? When all states certify their votes? When the Electoral College votes? When we confirm who's sitting in the Oval Office on the morning of Jan 21?

I guess it depends on who booked them. The odds at Betfair still suggest Trump has about a 5% chance. Personally, I'm already making arrangements to pay off old bets I made on Trump.

So when do bets get resolved? When all states certify their votes? When the Electoral College votes? When we confirm who's sitting in the Oval Office on the morning of Jan 21?

My offshores already paid me. Money is in my accounts.

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Trafalgar is laughably bad. They don't weight their results AT ALL. So their results skew toward the portion of the population who actually answers a phone call from an unrecognized number. Looking at how they poll is like watching a child mimic their father on bring your kid to work day. The majors also had issues this year, though their results will likely be within the margin of error everywhere but Wisconsin. Even most Florida polls were within a 4% MoE at a 95% CI. There's a broader argument to be had about whether a consistent cross-pollster skew in the same direction but within the MoE of each discrete poll is a 'miss' for the industry or not. The consistency of the skew makes it clear that there's some structural problem, but the small size (still within the MoE) makes it difficult to diagnose and correct - technically the polls are 'correct' if the results are within the MoE, even if they're obviously and consistently missing in the same direction every time.

Polls equal freedom
Since the dawn of time, people have used whatever to try to predict an outcome
Be it an election, the roll of dice or the next card
By the way, 1950 is calling you, they want your views on Taiwan back lol
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/35286-new-shutdowns-of-casinos/4/#post784365
True story. Long Long Long time ago bought some tea cups in Hong Kong. Flew to Taiwan. Was denied entry due to those made in China tea cups. Threw the tea cups away, allowed into the country. That was a long long long time ago. Times have changed, China and Taiwan are major trading partners. My Taiwan relatives have invested heavily in China. That was unheard of back in your day :-)

In the mid 90's, I played in the Penn State Grad/Faculty summer intramural league on the Math Department team. We had a starting off guard from Taiwan and a starting power forward from China. So the interaction was interesting -- mainly because they would kind of get insulted when people assumed they were both from the same place. And when people conflated the Taiwanese guy with the Chinese guy, which happened frequently, they were not happy.

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By the way, those international high school level leagues these guys grew up in must have been rough, because they never complained even when some 275-pound nose guard would clothesline them during a game. They said officiating in both Taiwan and more so in China basically allowed players to whack each other all the time.

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